A fan friend asked: "Teacher Meng, is our A-share market suitable for the concept of speculation? I have noticed that many leading stocks do not rise, while those with mediocre performance have increased by two or three times. Especially in the pharmaceutical stocks with the weight loss concept.
Here is my answer:
Many friends have the feeling that the A-share market is suitable for speculation because they only focus on the "phase" performance of the market. They only pay attention to the market trend for one or two years, or even a few months, and then draw the conclusion that short-term trading and concept speculation are more suitable for the A-share market.
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It's like a football match, where someone doesn't study any historical data of the teams. He only watches the first 10 minutes of the first half, and then he starts to judge the score of the whole match. The success rate of his judgment can be imagined. If you want to predict the outcome of the match, the best way is to look at the performance of the teams in the past ten or twenty years, rather than just watching one or two matches or 10 minutes of the game to make a prediction.
Whether the A-share market is suitable for concept speculation, we need to look at the results of concept speculation over ten or twenty years, and see how many people have made money from concept speculation over ten or twenty years, and how much they have made. Only a longer period of data is convincing enough, and we cannot make a decision based on the current one or two years or even a few months of market trends.
In my 27 years of investment career in the A-share market, if the A-share market is suitable for concept speculation, why haven't I seen anyone make a lot of money by speculating on concepts? On the contrary, there are many people who have lost money by speculating on concepts in the past 27 years.
Let's take a look at the trend chart of Century Star Source, which is a company with poor performance. We see that in the two years from 2005 to 2007, it has at least increased by more than 5 times. We will immediately feel that it doesn't matter if the performance is poor, and we can still make a lot of money. However, if we look at it from the time it went public to the present, nearly 30 years, we will find that if we hold this stock for 30 years without moving, the final return is actually negative.
From this, we can see the importance of the company's performance. A company with poor performance, its long-term trend is to keep falling: the surge is temporary, and the plunge is eternal.
Let's look at the following chart of Yili Shares. In the two years from 2006 to 2008, if we hold it, our return will be a loss of about 30%.However, if we look at the overall market trend over the past 20 years since its listing, we will find that this is a big bull stock. Even without including dividends, it has increased many times over the past 19 years.
From the long-term trend comparison between Century Star Source and Yili Shares, we can see that holding stocks of companies with good fundamentals can completely win by lying down, and the more the stock falls, the more we can add positions. For stocks with poor performance like Century Star Source, it is necessary to ensure that the stock price does not fall basically after buying (if the stock price falls after buying, it indicates that the low absorption has failed). After selling, the stock price does not rise basically (if the stock price rises sharply after selling, it indicates that the high throw has failed). In this way, the strategy of high throw and low absorption can be successful - but this is not a task that humans can complete at all.
Some people say: "For stocks like Century Star Source, high throw and low absorption is also good, and it can also earn a lot. Why say there is no operational value? As long as it is done well, it may earn more than holding blue-chip stocks for a long time."
It seems to be right, and I thought so when I was young. But the key question is what virtue and ability do we have to buy at the lowest point each time, and after buying, the stock price rises. Each time, it is timely to throw at the highest point, and the stock price does not rise after throwing.
For such wave operations, we will inevitably make some mistakes, plus the cost of back and forth transactions. Our final income is not only difficult to exceed the long-term lying flat holding strategy of blue-chip stocks, but we are also very likely to lose a lot of money.
I know that some people definitely disagree with my view, and they insist that high throw and low absorption or concept speculation can make money. I know I can't convince them, but the facts of 10 years or 20 years of investment will educate them. After 10 or 20 years of high throw and low absorption, they will completely understand when they are hit and blood flows. It is said that people teach people, they can't teach. Things teach people, and they will learn at once.
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