Berkshire Hathaway completely sold off its shares in seven companies in the third quarter, including General Motors, Activision Blizzard, Celanese, Mondelez International, Procter & Gamble, and Johnson & Johnson.
Buffett's decision to sell off Activision Blizzard is quite understandable, as he has already made a substantial profit. The sale of General Motors is also reasonable, as Buffett seems to have a pessimistic view of the automobile industry in recent years, and he has also reduced his holdings in BYD. Coupled with the strike of American automobile workers, it is very normal for Buffett to be not optimistic about the automobile industry.
However, his decision to sell off Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble is somewhat intriguing. These consumer industry stocks are usually Buffett's favorites. He probably thinks that their performance growth has slowed down, and it is better to buy some government bonds and hold them in hand.
Buffett also reduced his holdings in the oil stock Chevron. This indicates that he may have some doubts about his previous investment views on oil. Recently, the international oil price has continued to fall, breaking through $73. It has essentially entered a bear market for crude oil.
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In summary, Buffett's current sales indicate his cautious investment attitude towards the future of the U.S. stock market. Perhaps he is also very skeptical about the future of the U.S. stock market, which is why he has sold so many stocks and kept so much cash. As outsiders, it is really difficult for us to know exactly what Buffett thinks. It is already good for us to guess one or two points about his intentions.
A friend asked: "How to judge whether a person is a stock master?"
My judgment experience is:
1. Listen to their philosophy
Those who talk a lot about making 30% to 50% or even three to five times a year are mostly low-level or fraudsters. True masters are extremely low-key, setting an average annual profit of 20% as their goal. And most masters believe in value investment, and technical analysis rarely appears in stock masters.2 Inquire about their experience
Generally, those with 10, 20, or more years of trading experience may be considered trading experts. It is difficult for those with only a few years of trading experience to be experts; their success is mostly due to temporary luck. Most people start investing in their 20s, and after about 20 years of trading, they are at least around 40 years old. Therefore, investment experts are usually middle-aged and older. That is why the world-renowned investment master Munger said, "I don't talk about investing with people under 40."
3 Attitude towards risk
Those who pay attention to risk control and implement it are often experts. Those who do not pay attention to risk control will eventually suffer significant losses. People who often go all-in on a single stock or aggressively use leverage are definitely not true experts. True experts focus on fund management, investment portfolios, and asset allocation.
A friend asked, "How can I prevent being cheated in financial management and investment?"
I have been in financial management and investment for 27 years and have never been cheated. Here are some of my experiences:
1 Do not believe in things that seem too good to be true. Many financial management and investment projects promise extremely high returns, even several times higher than bank deposits. This temptation has led many people to fall for it. I usually stay away from such high-yield financial investments. I know that there are no free lunches. Excessive returns mean excessive risks.
2 Invest through regular channels. Large banks and reputable securities firms, public funds, and compliant insurance companies are the best financial channels for us ordinary investors. Stay away from small institutions, including unknown financial institutions, small private equity funds, and small to medium-sized banks.
3 Like a cunning rabbit with three burrows
Diversify your funds across multiple banks or institutions for financial management and investment, never entrust all your funds to a single institution. Diversify your financial assets to hedge against risks.4 When signing an agreement, it is essential to carefully read the financial management agreement to prevent being misled by financial service personnel. If there are parts you do not understand, ask a professional to explain and record the explanation.
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