The future trend is for solar energy to replace thermal and oil power generation. Solar energy is inexhaustible and endlessly usable, and it is environmentally friendly and low-carbon. Especially in our country, there is a serious dependence on oil, with more than 60% of the oil needed each year being imported, and the oil energy has reached a point that affects the national economic security. Therefore, it is urgent for our country to replace oil with solar energy.
It is clear that both our country and the global use of solar energy are still in the early stages, and the heating of my family every winter is still guaranteed by the thermal power supply company. The day when the heating of ordinary residential families comes from solar energy, the photovoltaic industry will basically stop growing.
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This is the reason why I am optimistic about the photovoltaic sector. The photovoltaic industry is still in the early stages of development and has great potential for growth in the future. It is not too late to invest in the photovoltaic industry now.
The current problem is how to invest in photovoltaics. The current overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry is just a short-term industry cycle. The most important thing in investing in the photovoltaic industry is to select stocks. However, it is extremely difficult to select stocks in the photovoltaic industry now. Because we don't know which photovoltaic company will become the industry leader in the future.
This is a common problem in investing in the technology industry. Taking 5G technology as an example, Huawei's 5G technology can develop to today. It is not because Huawei's technological strength is much stronger than international peers, but because Huawei was fortunate to choose the right technical route. When facing multiple technical routes, Huawei chose the right one. Other competitors chose the wrong technical route, which led to Huawei's current lead in the 5G technical route.
Enterprises will encounter many choices in the development process. If the choices are made correctly, they can continue to grow and develop; if the choices are made incorrectly, they may fall behind or even be eliminated. This is the same as our personal life choices, not all are a matter of vision, but also a matter of personal luck.
More than 20 years ago, the leader of color TV was Sichuan Changhong. At that time, there were many technical development routes, including LCD TV, plasma TV, and OLED TV. Sichuan Changhong chose to vigorously develop plasma TV, but the result proved that it chose the wrong technical route, and LCD TV is the mainstream of future television. Haier TV, which bet on the LCD technical route, has risen from then on, and Sichuan Changhong has been down and out ever since.
BYD's development in the past two years has been rapid, which has a lot to do with Wang Chuanfu's cessation of traditional fuel car production and full commitment to electric vehicles. Chang'an, Great Wall, SAIC and other car manufacturers have not given up the production of traditional fuel vehicles, which has led to a significant lag in investment in the development of electric vehicles in the past two years, at least half a step behind BYD in the development of electric vehicles.
Technology companies will face the choice of technical routes when they develop to a certain extent. This makes investors in technology stocks face great investment uncertainty and risk. This is the reason why our investment in the technology sector is relatively small.At present, there are four main technologies in the photovoltaic industry: one is PERC technology, another is TOPCon technology, one is HJT, and another is IBC technology.
No one knows which technological route will prevail in the future, and even industry veterans cannot see clearly. Therefore, investing in photovoltaic industry companies now carries certain risks.
I believe there are only two ways to reduce the risk of investing in the photovoltaic industry:
1. Invest in the companies with the strongest strength in the current photovoltaic industry, as they have a higher probability of continuing to survive and develop in the future.
For example, Longi Green Energy and TCL Zhonghuan are currently the top two companies in the photovoltaic industry, and theoretically, the probability of these two companies continuing to survive and develop in the future is relatively high.
2. Invest in the photovoltaic industry index fund to obtain the average returns of the industry.
This method is the least risky. However, the returns may be relatively lower. Although buying the entire photovoltaic sector is not the best idea, it is definitely a relatively good approach. At least it can share a bit of the future growth of the photovoltaic industry and not return empty-handed.
Nowadays, photovoltaics have become relatively popular in a few places, such as some farmers installing photovoltaic roofs, not only do they not have to pay electricity bills themselves, but they can also sell electricity to the power company. I also have such a plan, to buy a large courtyard of thousands of square meters in the countryside in the future, and build a big house with a photovoltaic roof. Raise a few chickens in the courtyard, build a cat house to adopt stray cats, plant some flowers, vegetables, and fruit trees in the courtyard. Living an ordinary rural life to spend the rest of my life, I feel that such a later life is quite good.
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