A friend asked: What is your view on the significant rise of A-shares on September 22, 2023?
In fact, those who raise such questions often perceive the stock market as a special place in their minds, or even a place not subject to the control of Earth's gravity. In reality, after experiencing the stock market for a long time and thinking more, you will find that the stock market is not a place outside the law, and there is no essential difference between the stock market and the vegetable market; both follow common laws.
For example, in the vegetable market, the price of garlic has been sluggish for the past two years, and today the price of garlic suddenly rose. Someone asks you, "What is your view on the significant rise in garlic prices today?"
As an experienced vegetable vendor, what can you say? You must be indifferent. Because you have seen a lot of such things. You know that garlic may continue to rise in price tomorrow, forming a price surge that lasts for several months. Perhaps the current rise in prices cannot be supported for long, and the price may fall back tomorrow. You know there are various possibilities, and it is meaningless to judge the rise and fall of garlic prices for one day, and it is impossible to make a prior judgment before each price surge. What we can do is only "possible" and "vague" analysis.
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The most clear point we have is that the planting cost of garlic and the low garlic prices for many years are likely to indicate that the probability of garlic prices continuing to fall in the future is small, and the probability of rising is relatively large. At least the probability of buying garlic now and making a big loss is very low.
There is no essential difference between buying stocks and funds in the stock market and buying garlic in the vegetable market. At present, A-shares, due to the continuous downturn for more than two years, have a small space and probability for funds and stocks to continue downward. The probability of continuing to make a big loss by buying and holding stocks now is very low, and the probability of making money is relatively large. As for whether A-shares will rise significantly next week, it can only be determined after the market has passed next week.
By thinking about the stock market in another scene of the world, you will find that the stock market is not mysterious at all, and the principles of investment are not difficult to understand. You will suddenly understand many difficult problems in stock market investment and see through their essence easily. This is what I often mention, "Investment is life, life is investment." The cover of my new book is this sentence.
For example, some stock investors believe that playing stocks is to use all means to quickly get other people's money into their own pockets. Then, he enters the market to practice and finds that the effect of making money under this concept is very poor, so he is confused.His issue lies in viewing the stock market as a special place, a place that follows its own unique set of rules. In reality, the stock market is merely a small segment of life, fully subject to the laws of life's development.
If he compares and contemplates the process of making money from stocks with the way we run our company, he will understand the true essence of stock trading. Consider this: if we were to run our company by constantly researching how to harm our industry competitors and how to get their money into our own pockets, what would happen to our company? The competitive environment would surely deteriorate, and we would also struggle to have a good outcome.
Running a company is not a competition of intelligence, nor is it a game of speculation. Managing a company requires our vision and perspective, as well as stability and patience. It is essential to focus on the company's core competitiveness, such as product development and improving service quality—things that demonstrate vision and perspective, and require patience and concentration.
Stock investment follows the same principle; it is not a competition of intelligence, nor is it a game of speculation. What truly matters in stock investment is the competition of vision, perspective, stability, and patience—elements that are on a grand scale. Without such a grand vision, constantly scheming to take money from others' pockets every day will not lead to much success and will ultimately lead to confusion, because he has taken the wrong path.
True stock investment is a bet on the country's fortune, a wager on the future development of industries and companies over the next ten years, and a pursuit of the dividends of national, industry, and company growth. It is this grand vision, perspective, and stability that constitute the broad and correct path to stock investment.
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