A friend asked: With 500,000 idle cash, should I enter the stock market now, or should I buy large bank certificates of deposit?
Here is my answer:
If you have 500,000 idle cash, I suggest you first reflect on whether your heart is strong enough, in professional terms, whether your risk aversion is high enough. If you can psychologically bear a loss of 30% or even 50%, then I suggest you use all of this 500,000 to buy stocks or stock funds.
The reason is that no matter how the bank deposit is made, its return will eventually lose to inflation, and our deposits will definitely depreciate in the end. We will definitely become poorer and poorer. Only investing in stocks has the hope of preserving and increasing the value of cash.
If you can only bear or only want to bear a loss of about 20%, then I suggest you use some idle money to buy large bank deposits, and invest some money in stocks. For example, use 300,000 to buy stocks and deposit 200,000 in the bank. In this way, you can attack and defend. When the stock market is not good, you will not lose too much. When the stock market rises, you can also gain stock investment returns.
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If you can't accept a floating loss of 10% in stocks and feel the pressure is huge, then I suggest you put all your money into large bank deposits, because the stock market is not suitable for you. In the stock market investment, there will often be a floating loss of more than 10%, and without such a strong heart, it is impossible to invest in the stock market.
Finally, if you choose the first option, that is, to put all your money into the stock market. Then you should also not hold the mentality of "speculating" in stocks, but have the attitude of "investing" in stocks. Because most of the people who speculate in stocks will eventually lose money. Only long-term value investment is easy to obtain a rich investment return.
A fan friend asked: Hello, Mr. Meng! How do you view the following views such as "no one will drink white wine in the future", "the reduction of the population (birth rate) will reduce the sales volume of food such as Yili shares"? Can the consumer sector continue to be a bull market?
In my view, at present, the most important thing for most of our residents in our country is not the issue of how much to drink or whether to drink or not, but whether they can afford to drink. The per capita consumption capacity of our country's residents is relatively low, much lower than that of residents in South Korea and Japan. There are 600 million people in our country with a monthly income of less than 1,000 yuan. For example, many consumers can't afford many products of Yili shares, and many families don't love to drink milk, but they don't have the economic ability to drink it every day. Not to mention high-end dairy products such as yogurt and cheese.Many residents have never been on an airplane, and some have never used a flushing toilet! The consumption potential of our country's residents is extremely huge. It's just that people's income is limited now, and their desire to consume is suppressed. As long as the income of residents increases in the future, people's consumption scale and grade will rapidly improve.
For example, if the population decreases by 5% in the future, but people's purchasing power increases by 25%, the overall consumption will still increase. That is to say, the improvement of future consumption ability will far outweigh the impact of the decline in the birth rate. Moreover, there are quite a few families having a second or even a third child now, and it is unlikely that the decline in the future birth population will be rapid, and even the birth rate may rebound after several decades.
The birth rate is one of the factors affecting the economy, but it is not the only factor. When considering economic development, we cannot only consider the birth rate.
Regarding the view that "no one will drink white liquor in the future," authoritative experts said so 20 years ago. I also agreed with this view at that time. Later, I found that this view was wrong. We have overly focused on the factors of health and ignored the impact of human nature. Who doesn't know that drinking, smoking, playing mahjong, staying up late, overeating, playing games, and other such lifestyle habits that have a significant impact on health? But people still do these things one after another. The reason is that human nature cannot resist these temptations. People couldn't resist in the past few hundred years, and it will be difficult for people to resist in the next few decades or even a few hundred years.
Therefore, I believe that people will still drink white liquor in the future, but due to the improvement of consumption ability, people will consume more high-grade white liquor, and the sales volume of low-grade white liquor will become lower and lower, while the sales volume of high-grade white liquor will become higher and higher. This also conforms to human nature - desire is endless, and the pursuit of a higher level of consumption.
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